CARConference-Adjusted
Rankings

2026 college football rankings
Every FBS team. One independent matrix.

A conference-first ranking and forecasting system for all 138 FBS programs. Conference quality is earned in nonconference games; team quality is earned against the opponents actually played.

2026 Week 4 EditionFifth results-based rankingUpdated September 29, 2026

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Week 4 matrix

2026 FBS rankings

138teams ranked

How to read this release: All 71 games played September 24–26 are final. This edition combines 20% of the original preseason rating with 80% cumulative 2026 evidence. Week 4 games use frozen Week 3 opponent values. Earlier game values are unchanged. Movement reflects both new results and the scheduled transition from 35/65 to 20/80. Confidence remains Early.

Rank all teams by CAR measure →

Why each team is ranked here

Twelve CAR measures explain the ranking beyond wins and losses.

Choose a team

CAR Game Value

LoadingOpponent, location, margin, and expectation value

Expectation Delta

LoadingActual margin minus expected margin

Schedule Strength Played

LoadingDifficulty of completed FBS games

Schedule Strength Remaining

LoadingDifficulty of games still to be played

Best Win / Worst Result

LoadingMost valuable win, or costliest result without a win

Opponent-Adjusted Offense

LoadingScoring compared with opponents' usual defense

Opponent-Adjusted Defense

LoadingPoints prevented versus opponents' usual offense

Road and Neutral Strength

LoadingAverage value in games away from home

Consistency Index

LoadingStability from one adjusted result to the next

Conference Contribution

LoadingEffect on the team's conference score

Quality Record

LoadingRecord by frozen opponent tier

CAR Trajectory

LoadingChange across up to three releases

Played metrics use completed FBS games. Remaining schedule includes future regular-season opponents; FCS opponents count as zero. Early measures appear only when enough games exist. Select a team here or click its name in the rankings.

Rank	Team	Conference	Record	Previous	CAR points	Confidence
1	Texas	SEC	4–0	1	86.263	Early
2	Georgia	SEC	4–0	4	85.438	Early
3	Florida	SEC	4–0	11	84.588	Early
4	Indiana	Big Ten	4–0	2	84.401	Early
5	Miami	ACC	4–0	5	82.993	Early
6	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	4–0	3	82.851	Early
7	Texas Tech	Big 12	4–0	8	82.711	Early
8	Alabama	SEC	4–0	7	82.541	Early
9	BYU	Big 12	3–0	12	81.956	Early
10	Iowa	Big Ten	4–0	16	81.898	Early
11	Utah	Big 12	4–0	18	79.513	Early
12	Duke	ACC	4–0	27	79.442	Early
13	Mississippi State	SEC	4–0	32	79.187	Early
14	Ohio State	Big Ten	3–1	23	78.936	Early
15	Nebraska	Big Ten	4–0	29	78.307	Early
16	LSU	SEC	3–1	19	77.908	Early
17	North Dakota State	Mountain West	4–0	21	77.664	Early
18	James Madison	Sun Belt	4–0	24	77.647	Early
19	Pittsburgh	ACC	4–0	28	76.861	Early
20	South Florida	American Athletic	4–0	26	76.676	Early
21	Ole Miss	SEC	3–1	6	76.380	Early
22	Cincinnati	Big 12	4–0	39	75.716	Early
23	UCLA	Big Ten	4–0	35	75.552	Early
24	Virginia Tech	ACC	4–0	34	75.493	Early
25	Michigan	Big Ten	3–1	9	75.311	Early
26	Clemson	ACC	3–1	31	74.993	Early
27	USC	Big Ten	4–1	13	74.051	Early
28	Boise State	Pac-12	3–1	36	72.528	Early
29	Auburn	SEC	3–1	42	71.807	Early
30	Wake Forest	ACC	3–1	47	71.772	Early
31	Kentucky	SEC	3–1	44	70.693	Early
32	Fresno State	Pac-12	3–1	38	70.596	Early
33	Oregon	Big Ten	3–1	54	70.102	Early
34	Tennessee	SEC	3–1	10	69.531	Early
35	Penn State	Big Ten	3–1	15	69.421	Early
36	UCF	Big 12	3–1	49	69.171	Early
37	Wisconsin	Big Ten	3–1	67	69.011	Early
38	Massachusetts	Mid-American	4–0	43	68.722	Early
39	UTSA	American Athletic	3–1	52	68.495	Early
40	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	3–1	46	67.987	Early
41	Northwestern	Big Ten	2–1	20	67.715	Early
42	Oklahoma State	Big 12	3–1	75	67.077	Early
43	Missouri	SEC	3–1	14	66.867	Early
44	Kansas State	Big 12	3–1	30	66.004	Early
45	West Virginia	Big 12	3–1	33	65.278	Early
46	Minnesota	Big Ten	3–1	80	64.843	Early
47	Oklahoma	SEC	2–2	25	64.576	Early
48	Virginia	ACC	3–1	69	62.850	Early
49	Baylor	Big 12	3–1	64	62.076	Early
50	Michigan State	Big Ten	2–2	45	61.940	Early
51	Houston	Big 12	3–1	53	61.305	Early
52	Arizona	Big 12	3–1	57	59.931	Early
53	Liberty	Conference USA	3–1	66	59.801	Early
54	Vanderbilt	SEC	3–1	22	59.756	Early
55	New Mexico	Mountain West	3–1	60	59.174	Early
56	Louisiana	Sun Belt	3–1	65	58.404	Early
57	Marshall	Sun Belt	3–1	51	58.403	Early
58	Washington	Big Ten	3–1	17	57.396	Early
59	North Carolina	ACC	2–1	61	57.052	Early
60	Arkansas	SEC	2–2	109	56.617	Early
61	Memphis	American Athletic	3–1	50	56.414	Early
62	Stanford	ACC	2–2	79	55.859	Early
63	NC State	ACC	2–2	99	53.961	Early
64	Arizona State	Big 12	2–1	58	53.712	Early
65	Texas A&M	SEC	2–2	37	53.161	Early
66	SMU	ACC	3–1	74	51.964	Early
67	Texas State	Pac-12	2–2	62	51.845	Early
68	Toledo	Mid-American	3–1	83	50.629	Early
69	Louisville	ACC	2–2	41	50.106	Early
70	Georgia State	Sun Belt	3–1	93	48.593	Early
71	Army	American Athletic	2–1	94	48.205	Early
72	Air Force	Mountain West	2–1	98	48.008	Early
73	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	3–2	89	47.162	Early
74	Iowa State	Big 12	2–2	59	45.095	Early
75	South Carolina	SEC	2–2	55	43.778	Early
76	Florida State	ACC	2–2	81	43.534	Early
77	App State	Sun Belt	3–1	40	43.530	Early
78	Maryland	Big Ten	2–2	63	43.187	Early
79	Oregon State	Pac-12	2–2	123	42.378	Early
80	Tulane	American Athletic	2–2	87	41.502	Early
81	UNLV	Mountain West	2–2	90	41.102	Early
82	Illinois	Big Ten	2–2	68	40.429	Early
83	Colorado State	Pac-12	2–2	70	39.641	Early
84	North Texas	American Athletic	2–2	77	39.067	Early
85	Western Michigan	Mid-American	2–2	56	38.486	Early
86	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	2–2	110	38.040	Early
87	San José State	Mountain West	2–2	91	37.605	Early
88	South Alabama	Sun Belt	2–2	71	36.555	Early
89	Florida International	Conference USA	2–2	88	36.164	Early
90	East Carolina	American Athletic	2–2	85	35.367	Early
91	Boston College	ACC	2–2	86	35.312	Early
92	UAB	American Athletic	2–2	108	34.772	Early
93	Kent State	Mid-American	2–2	114	34.595	Early
94	TCU	Big 12	2–2	73	34.289	Early
95	Central Michigan	Mid-American	2–2	84	33.303	Early
96	Tulsa	American Athletic	3–1	48	31.167	Early
97	UConn	FBS Independents	2–2	76	30.297	Early
98	California	ACC	2–2	95	28.886	Early
99	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	2–2	82	28.623	Early
100	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	2–2	119	28.144	Early
101	Colorado	Big 12	2–2	92	27.928	Early
102	Utah State	Pac-12	1–3	122	27.549	Early
103	Delaware	Conference USA	2–2	78	27.215	Early
104	Wyoming	Mountain West	2–2	134	26.827	Early
105	Ohio	Mid-American	2–2	97	26.747	Early
106	Troy	Sun Belt	2–2	72	26.523	Early
107	Hawai'i	Mountain West	1–3	96	24.191	Early
108	San Diego State	Pac-12	1–3	100	23.521	Early
109	Georgia Tech	ACC	1–3	103	23.478	Early
110	Washington State	Pac-12	1–3	102	23.236	Early
111	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	2–3	113	22.911	Early
112	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	1–3	101	21.939	Early
113	Nevada	Mountain West	1–3	115	21.793	Early
114	Kansas	Big 12	1–2	111	21.398	Early
115	Missouri State	Conference USA	1–3	112	20.869	Early
116	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	1–3	104	20.787	Early
117	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	1–3	116	20.398	Early
118	Navy	American Athletic	1–2	106	20.293	Early
119	Purdue	Big Ten	1–3	121	19.964	Early
120	Temple	American Athletic	1–3	118	19.840	Early
121	Sacramento State	Mid-American	1–4	117	19.615	Early
122	Rice	American Athletic	1–3	124	19.526	Early
123	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	1–2	105	19.498	Early
124	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	1–3	107	19.484	Early
125	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	1–3	125	18.619	Early
126	New Mexico State	Conference USA	1–3	129	18.158	Early
127	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	1–3	128	18.013	Early
128	Buffalo	Mid-American	2–2	127	17.861	Early
129	Rutgers	Big Ten	1–3	126	17.718	Early
130	Bowling Green	Mid-American	0–4	131	17.633	Early
131	Northern Illinois	Mountain West	0–4	132	17.006	Early
132	Syracuse	ACC	1–2	135	16.993	Early
133	Akron	Mid-American	1–3	130	16.671	Early
134	Sam Houston	Conference USA	1–3	136	16.614	Early
135	Ball State	Mid-American	1–3	133	16.149	Early
136	UTEP	Mountain West	1–3	120	15.510	Early
137	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	0–4	137	14.956	Early
138	Charlotte	American Athletic	0–4	138	14.142	Early

Download Week 4 rankings (CSV)Original methodology (historical PDF)

Conference-first matrix

Week 4 conference standings

Download conference standings (CSV)

Conference scores are earned only in games against other FBS conferences and are adjusted for opponent strength and location. Week 4 evidence is strongly shrunk toward the neutral 50.000 baseline; conferences without an interconference result remain tied.

Rank	Conference	Nonconference	Games	CAR conference score	Confidence
1	SEC	28–2	30	74.803	Early
2	Big Ten	29–11	40	62.901	Early
3	ACC	17–9	26	60.692	Early
4	Big 12	21–8	29	60.666	Early
5	FBS Independents	5–2	7	54.057	Early
6	Pac-12	9–16	25	48.251	Early
7	American Athletic	15–20	35	44.522	Early
8	Mountain West	8–15	23	38.831	Early
9	Sun Belt	13–24	37	36.676	Early
10	Conference USA	6–25	31	33.445	Early
11	Mid-American	7–26	33	31.887	Early

Weekly recap · Games of September 24–26

Week 4: Texas leads, Florida climbs to No. 3

Texas remains No. 1, followed by Georgia, Florida, Indiana and Miami. Duke rises to No. 12 and Mississippi State to No. 13. North Dakota State, James Madison and South Florida are No. 17, No. 18 and No. 20. The SEC leads the conference matrix at 28–2. The ACC moves from fifth to third, narrowly ahead of the Big 12, 60.692 to 60.666.

Open printable weekly recap (PDF)

Florida to No. 3

52–28 over Ole Miss. Florida rises eight places to No. 3.

+15

Duke to No. 12

Into the Top 25. Duke rises 15 places to No. 12.

+19

Mississippi State to No. 13

Into the Top 25. Mississippi State rises 19 places to No. 13.

South Florida to No. 20

Into the Top 25. South Florida rises six places to No. 20.

+49

Arkansas to No. 60

Largest rise. Arkansas climbs 49 places to No. 60.

-15

Ole Miss to No. 21

28–52 at Florida. Ole Miss falls 15 places to No. 21.

How this edition is calculated: This edition combines 20% of the original preseason rating with 80% cumulative 2026 evidence. Week 4 games use frozen Week 3 opponent values. Earlier game values are unchanged. Movement reflects both new results and the scheduled transition from 35/65 to 20/80. Confidence remains Early.

All 71 games are final: 58 FBS-versus-FBS and 13 FBS-versus-FCS. FBS wins over FCS teams earn no positive résumé or conference value. The printable recap includes every final score.

Transparent by design

How CAR works

35%

Matrix résumé

Rewards wins over strong opponents using the opponent's frozen pregame matrix value.

30%

Predictive strength

Measures performance against frozen pregame win expectations, using outcome surprise and margin capped at 28 points.

25%

Record quality

Values wins and losses in context instead of relying on raw winning percentage.

10%

Conference strength

Uses opponent- and location-adjusted performance against other conferences.

FCS rule

An FBS win over an FCS opponent earns no positive résumé or conference points. An FBS loss receives a substantial deduction.

Two distinct outputs

The selection ranking asks who has earned a playoff place. The predictive rating asks who is most likely to win next.

Independent inputs

AP, ESPN, CFP committee rankings, and gambling odds are not inputs. They may be used only as external benchmarks.

Current implementation: The predictive component uses outcome surprise and capped margin, not play-level efficiency or personnel inputs. The original methodology PDF is retained for historical reference and is not the current executable specification. The transition table below governs this release.

Preseason transition, clarified September 20: Preseason 100%; after Week 0 80%; Week 1 65%; Week 2 50%; Week 3 35%; Week 4 20%; Week 5 10%; Week 6 onward 0%. The remaining weight uses cumulative current-season evidence. The original preseason baseline is retained in the archive; frozen historical game expectations do not change.

What comes next

Next ranking: after the full Week 5 slate

Week 4 is the comparison point for the next edition. The next transition step is 10% preseason and 90% current-season evidence.

View all teams

About the rankings

CAR college football ranking questions

What are the CAR rankings?

CAR is an independent ranking of every FBS football team. It begins with how conferences perform outside their leagues, then evaluates each team's results against the strength of the opponents it actually played.

How often are the rankings updated?

During the season, a new edition is planned each week after the completed games are processed. The page keeps the prior rank so readers can see movement over time.

Does CAR use AP, ESPN, CFP, or betting rankings?

No. Those rankings and betting odds are not model inputs. CAR can compare its results with outside systems, but its published rank is independently calculated.

Why rank all 138 FBS teams?

Ranking the full division gives every opponent a matrix value. That lets a win over a strong team count more than a win over a weak team and helps quantify schedule quality consistently.