CARConference-Adjusted
Rankings

2026 college football rankings
Every FBS team. One independent matrix.

A conference-first ranking and forecasting system for all 138 FBS programs. Conference quality is earned in nonconference games; team quality is earned against the opponents actually played.

2026 Week 5 EditionSixth results-based rankingUpdated October 4, 2026

Subscribe or link to CAR

Week 5 matrix

2026 FBS rankings

138teams ranked

How to read this release: All 59 games played October 1–3 are final. This edition combines 10% of the original preseason rating with 90% cumulative 2026 evidence. Week 5 games use frozen Week 4 opponent values. Earlier game values are unchanged. Movement reflects both new results and the scheduled transition from 20/80 to 10/90. Bye-week teams can move without a new game. Confidence remains Early.

Rank all teams by CAR measure →

Why each team is ranked here

Twelve CAR measures explain the ranking beyond wins and losses.

Choose a team

CAR Game Value

LoadingOpponent, location, margin, and expectation value

Expectation Delta

LoadingActual margin minus expected margin

Schedule Strength Played

LoadingDifficulty of completed FBS games

Schedule Strength Remaining

LoadingDifficulty of games still to be played

Best Win / Worst Result

LoadingMost valuable win, or costliest result without a win

Opponent-Adjusted Offense

LoadingScoring compared with opponents' usual defense

Opponent-Adjusted Defense

LoadingPoints prevented versus opponents' usual offense

Road and Neutral Strength

LoadingAverage value in games away from home

Consistency Index

LoadingStability from one adjusted result to the next

Conference Contribution

LoadingEffect on the team's conference score

Quality Record

LoadingRecord by frozen opponent tier

CAR Trajectory

LoadingChange across up to three releases

Played metrics use completed FBS games. Remaining schedule includes future regular-season opponents; FCS opponents count as zero. Early measures appear only when enough games exist. Select a team here or click its name in the rankings.

Rank	Team	Conference	Record	Previous	CAR points	Confidence
1	Texas	SEC	4–0	1	86.018	Early
2	Alabama	SEC	5–0	8	84.729	Early
3	Georgia	SEC	5–0	2	84.545	Early
4	Miami	ACC	5–0	5	84.122	Early
5	Indiana	Big Ten	5–0	4	83.366	Early
6	Duke	ACC	4–0	12	83.133	Early
7	UCLA	Big Ten	4–0	23	82.202	Early
8	Texas Tech	Big 12	5–0	7	82.130	Early
9	BYU	Big 12	4–0	9	82.096	Early
10	Nebraska	Big Ten	5–0	15	81.717	Early
11	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	5–0	6	81.698	Early
12	Pittsburgh	ACC	5–0	19	80.904	Early
13	Utah	Big 12	4–0	11	80.732	Early
14	Ohio State	Big Ten	4–1	14	79.761	Early
15	North Dakota State	Mountain West	5–0	17	78.762	Early
16	James Madison	Sun Belt	5–0	18	78.619	Early
17	Missouri	SEC	4–1	43	77.837	Early
18	Mississippi State	SEC	4–1	13	77.510	Early
19	LSU	SEC	4–1	16	77.372	Early
20	Tennessee	SEC	4–1	34	77.138	Early
21	Arizona	Big 12	4–1	52	76.476	Early
22	Ole Miss	SEC	3–1	21	76.269	Early
23	Minnesota	Big Ten	4–1	46	76.182	Early
24	Kentucky	SEC	4–1	31	76.001	Early
25	Northwestern	Big Ten	3–1	41	75.982	Early
26	Wisconsin	Big Ten	4–1	37	75.954	Early
27	Florida	SEC	4–1	3	75.787	Early
28	Boise State	Pac-12	4–1	28	75.680	Early
29	USC	Big Ten	5–1	27	75.368	Early
30	Wake Forest	ACC	4–1	30	75.234	Early
31	Houston	Big 12	4–1	51	75.146	Early
32	Baylor	Big 12	4–1	49	74.998	Early
33	Oklahoma State	Big 12	3–1	42	74.399	Early
34	Iowa	Big Ten	4–1	10	74.129	Early
35	Fresno State	Pac-12	4–1	32	74.001	Early
36	Virginia Tech	ACC	4–1	24	73.537	Early
37	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	4–1	40	72.895	Early
38	UTSA	American Athletic	4–1	39	72.357	Early
39	Auburn	SEC	3–2	29	70.554	Early
40	Texas A&M	SEC	3–2	65	69.922	Early
41	Liberty	Conference USA	4–1	53	69.220	Early
42	Florida State	ACC	3–2	76	68.946	Early
43	Kansas State	Big 12	3–1	44	68.670	Early
44	Michigan	Big Ten	3–2	25	67.423	Early
45	Oregon	Big Ten	3–1	33	66.946	Early
46	Louisiana	Sun Belt	4–1	56	66.408	Early
47	NC State	ACC	3–2	63	66.395	Early
48	Clemson	ACC	3–2	26	65.357	Early
49	New Mexico	Mountain West	4–1	55	65.292	Early
50	Iowa State	Big 12	3–2	74	63.881	Early
51	Cincinnati	Big 12	4–1	22	63.724	Early
52	Oregon State	Pac-12	3–2	79	62.869	Early
53	Oklahoma	SEC	2–2	47	62.853	Early
54	Memphis	American Athletic	4–1	61	62.468	Early
55	Georgia State	Sun Belt	4–1	70	60.145	Early
56	SMU	ACC	4–1	66	59.277	Early
57	UCF	Big 12	3–2	36	58.787	Early
58	South Florida	American Athletic	4–1	20	57.754	Early
59	Air Force	Mountain West	3–1	72	56.915	Early
60	Toledo	Mid-American	4–1	68	55.185	Early
61	Penn State	Big Ten	3–2	35	54.187	Early
62	Michigan State	Big Ten	2–3	50	54.106	Early
63	Vanderbilt	SEC	3–2	54	52.427	Early
64	West Virginia	Big 12	3–2	45	52.337	Early
65	North Carolina	ACC	2–2	59	51.780	Early
66	Marshall	Sun Belt	3–2	57	50.897	Early
67	Stanford	ACC	2–3	62	49.518	Early
68	UNLV	Mountain West	3–2	81	48.098	Early
69	Washington	Big Ten	3–2	58	47.985	Early
70	San José State	Mountain West	3–2	87	47.872	Early
71	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	3–2	73	47.048	Early
72	North Texas	American Athletic	3–2	84	46.255	Early
73	Massachusetts	Mid-American	4–1	38	45.636	Early
74	App State	Sun Belt	3–1	77	45.015	Early
75	South Alabama	Sun Belt	3–2	88	44.337	Early
76	Western Michigan	Mid-American	3–2	85	43.523	Early
77	Kansas	Big 12	2–2	114	42.254	Early
78	Arkansas	SEC	2–3	60	41.475	Early
79	Central Michigan	Mid-American	3–2	95	40.791	Early
80	Purdue	Big Ten	2–3	119	40.302	Early
81	Tulane	American Athletic	2–2	80	38.991	Early
82	Louisville	ACC	2–3	69	38.554	Early
83	Maryland	Big Ten	2–3	78	38.435	Early
84	Arizona State	Big 12	2–2	64	37.651	Early
85	Syracuse	ACC	2–2	132	37.507	Early
86	Virginia	ACC	3–2	48	36.723	Early
87	UAB	American Athletic	3–2	92	36.162	Early
88	Florida International	Conference USA	2–2	89	35.487	Early
89	South Carolina	SEC	2–3	75	35.338	Early
90	Texas State	Pac-12	2–3	67	32.684	Early
91	East Carolina	American Athletic	2–2	90	32.524	Early
92	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	2–2	123	32.243	Early
93	Temple	American Athletic	2–3	120	31.624	Early
94	Ohio	Mid-American	3–2	105	30.657	Early
95	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	3–3	111	29.547	Early
96	TCU	Big 12	2–3	94	28.941	Early
97	San Diego State	Pac-12	2–3	108	28.438	Early
98	Tulsa	American Athletic	3–2	96	27.868	Early
99	Boston College	ACC	2–3	91	27.382	Early
100	Army	American Athletic	2–2	71	26.404	Early
101	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	2–3	117	25.900	Early
102	California	ACC	2–3	98	25.900	Early
103	Illinois	Big Ten	2–3	82	25.894	Early
104	Utah State	Pac-12	1–4	102	25.587	Early
105	New Mexico State	Conference USA	2–3	126	25.469	Early
106	Colorado	Big 12	2–3	101	25.468	Early
107	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	2–3	100	25.199	Early
108	Wyoming	Mountain West	2–3	104	25.144	Early
109	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	2–3	86	24.525	Early
110	Delaware	Conference USA	2–3	103	24.469	Early
111	Troy	Sun Belt	2–2	106	24.316	Early
112	Colorado State	Pac-12	2–3	83	24.177	Early
113	UConn	FBS Independents	2–3	97	24.044	Early
114	Kent State	Mid-American	2–3	93	23.926	Early
115	Bowling Green	Mid-American	1–4	130	23.468	Early
116	Nevada	Mountain West	1–3	113	21.739	Early
117	Washington State	Pac-12	1–4	110	20.646	Early
118	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	2–3	99	20.609	Early
119	Hawai'i	Mountain West	1–4	107	20.516	Early
120	Georgia Tech	ACC	1–3	109	20.027	Early
121	Rice	American Athletic	1–4	122	19.054	Early
122	Missouri State	Conference USA	1–3	115	18.842	Early
123	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	1–4	112	18.174	Early
124	Navy	American Athletic	1–3	118	17.764	Early
125	Rutgers	Big Ten	1–4	129	17.489	Early
126	Sam Houston	Conference USA	1–3	134	17.200	Early
127	Sacramento State	Mid-American	1–4	121	17.086	Early
128	Buffalo	Mid-American	2–3	128	16.823	Early
129	Northern Illinois	Mountain West	0–4	131	16.399	Early
130	UTEP	Mountain West	1–4	136	16.151	Early
131	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	1–4	116	16.029	Early
132	Ball State	Mid-American	1–4	135	15.998	Early
133	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	1–4	125	15.934	Early
134	Charlotte	American Athletic	0–5	138	15.690	Early
135	Akron	Mid-American	1–4	133	15.494	Early
136	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	1–3	124	15.435	Early
137	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	1–3	127	15.391	Early
138	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	0–5	137	15.199	Early

Download Week 5 rankings (CSV)Original methodology (historical PDF)

Conference-first matrix

Week 5 conference standings

Download conference standings (CSV)

Conference scores are earned only in games against other FBS conferences and are adjusted for opponent strength and location. Week 5 evidence is strongly shrunk toward the neutral 50.000 baseline; conferences without an interconference result remain tied.

Rank	Conference	Nonconference	Games	CAR conference score	Confidence
1	SEC	28–2	30	74.803	Early
2	Big Ten	29–11	40	62.901	Early
3	Big 12	22–8	30	61.578	Early
4	ACC	18–11	29	59.368	Early
5	FBS Independents	6–3	9	52.127	Early
6	Pac-12	9–16	25	48.251	Early
7	American Athletic	15–22	37	43.002	Early
8	Mountain West	10–15	25	40.568	Early
9	Sun Belt	13–24	37	36.676	Early
10	Conference USA	7–26	33	34.095	Early
11	Mid-American	7–26	33	31.887	Early

Weekly recap · Games of October 1–3

Week 5: Texas leads the CAR rankings

Texas leads the Week 5 CAR rankings, followed by Alabama, Georgia, Miami and Indiana. SEC leads the conference matrix with a 28–2 FBS interconference record and a score of 74.803. The Big 12 moves ahead of the ACC into third. North Dakota State and James Madison rise to No. 15 and No. 16, respectively.

Open printable weekly recap (PDF)

+47

Syracuse to No. 85

W 42–41 at UConn. Syracuse rises 47 places to No. 85.

+39

Purdue to No. 80

W 24–17 at Illinois. Purdue rises 39 places to No. 80.

+37

Kansas to No. 77

W 55–0 vs Middle Tennessee. Kansas rises 37 places to No. 77.

-38

South Florida to No. 58

L 13–17 vs Temple. South Florida falls 38 places to No. 58.

-38

Virginia to No. 86

L 7–38 at Florida State. Virginia falls 38 places to No. 86.

-35

Massachusetts to No. 73

L 14–38 vs Eastern Michigan. Massachusetts falls 35 places to No. 73.

How this edition is calculated: This edition combines 10% of the original preseason rating with 90% cumulative 2026 evidence. Week 5 games use frozen Week 4 opponent values. Earlier game values are unchanged. Movement reflects both new results and the scheduled transition from 20/80 to 10/90. Bye-week teams can move without a new game. Confidence remains Early.

All 59 games are final: 56 FBS-versus-FBS and 3 FBS-versus-FCS. FBS wins over FCS teams earn no positive résumé or conference value. The printable recap includes every final score.

Transparent by design

How CAR works

35%

Matrix résumé

Rewards wins over strong opponents using the opponent's frozen pregame matrix value.

30%

Predictive strength

Measures performance against frozen pregame win expectations, using outcome surprise and margin capped at 28 points.

25%

Record quality

Values wins and losses in context instead of relying on raw winning percentage.

10%

Conference strength

Uses opponent- and location-adjusted performance against other conferences.

FCS rule

An FBS win over an FCS opponent earns no positive résumé or conference points. An FBS loss receives a substantial deduction.

Two distinct outputs

The selection ranking asks who has earned a playoff place. The predictive rating asks who is most likely to win next.

Independent inputs

AP, ESPN, CFP committee rankings, and gambling odds are not inputs. They may be used only as external benchmarks.

Current implementation: The predictive component uses outcome surprise and capped margin, not play-level efficiency or personnel inputs. The original methodology PDF is retained for historical reference and is not the current executable specification. The transition table below governs this release.

Preseason transition, clarified September 20: Preseason 100%; after Week 0 80%; Week 1 65%; Week 2 50%; Week 3 35%; Week 4 20%; Week 5 10%; Week 6 onward 0%. The remaining weight uses cumulative current-season evidence. The original preseason baseline is retained in the archive; frozen historical game expectations do not change.

What comes next

Next ranking: after the full Week 6 slate

Week 5 is the comparison point for the next edition. The next transition step is 0% preseason and 100% current-season evidence.

View all teams

About the rankings

CAR college football ranking questions

What are the CAR rankings?

CAR is an independent ranking of every FBS football team. It begins with how conferences perform outside their leagues, then evaluates each team's results against the strength of the opponents it actually played.

How often are the rankings updated?

During the season, a new edition is planned each week after the completed games are processed. The page keeps the prior rank so readers can see movement over time.

Does CAR use AP, ESPN, CFP, or betting rankings?

No. Those rankings and betting odds are not model inputs. CAR can compare its results with outside systems, but its published rank is independently calculated.

Why rank all 138 FBS teams?

Ranking the full division gives every opponent a matrix value. That lets a win over a strong team count more than a win over a weak team and helps quantify schedule quality consistently.